The Middle East and Africa are close neighbouring regions, but their all-important aviation markets are distinctly different. Tony Harrington explores why
There are few greater illustrations of vision or optimism than in the Middle East powerhouse of Dubai, where the world’s busiest international airport is to be replaced by a new hub five times bigger, with gates for 400 aircraft, five parallel runways, and eventual annual capacity for 260 million passengers.
Nor, it seems, is there greater lack of focus than in Africa, where multiple nations have expensively committed to vast new airports, many with nowhere near enough flights to fill them, due largely to a long-term lack of air connections between the continent’s 54 countries.
Worlds apart
These very different scenarios are monuments to the polar-opposite aviation strategies of the Middle East and Africa – two vast and diverse neighbouring regions often singly abbreviated to MEA as if they were one.
But they’re far from that, for beneath big hopes that air transport will propel their respective prosperities, there are striking differences in their growth trajectories, opportunities and challenges. The closest they will get is on a map.
One senior aviation executive long experienced in both regions observes that, on paper at least, each has significant potential for growth – but with one big difference.
“In the Middle East,” he says, “countries have a vision for their aviation sectors supported by a plan. In Africa they don’t.”
To be fair, there are aviation success stories in Africa – Ethiopia is a standout with a large, high-quality national airline and a big, busy air hub in Addis Ababa – and there are markets in the Middle East which won’t get close to the success of Dubai or Doha.
But both instances are rare and not enough to change the directions of their broader regions.
Holistically, the Middle East’s aviation industry has been on the rise for almost four decades, with key priorities defined, funded and integrated into long-term social and economic visions governed by clear KPIs and strict timeframes for achievement.
In the 1980s, says aviation data group OAG in a new report on the Middle East, many international airlines considered the region as “a purely technical stop” for flights between Europe and Asia to fill up on cheap fuel.
But: “The Middle East is now one of the fastest-growing markets in the world,” says OAG. “The transformation can only be described as incredible, visionary in thought, near perfect in delivery, and resulting in the region becoming the centre of the aviation industry, linking nearly every major city in the world to at least one of the region’s major hubs.”
Greater Africa, however, has perpetually struggled to develop a cohesive aviation plan due largely to the complexities of aligning its very different member nations, many of which have developed their air transport sectors in hopeful but haphazard isolation.
Even within some governments, aviation policy is divided between multiple ministers with different perspectives or agendas.
The result is cart-before-horse developments and a lack of flights between African states, further exacerbated by persistent political instability, national self-interest, rollercoaster economies and currency chaos.
The Middle East is bouncing back post-Covid
Conversely, since the end of the pandemic, key Middle East markets – specifically the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia – have experienced robust recoveries of traffic through their hub airports, as well as increased intra-region flights, more business and leisure travellers and additional freight.
Underpinning their collective success is recognition by their governments of the long-term benefits of strong and integrated air transport sectors, and constant forward thinking.
“Middle Eastern markets have somewhat reshaped since pre-Covid, with an increased focus on operational resilience, diversification and sustainability,” says Linus Bauer, founder and managing director of Dubai-based consultancy BAA & Partners.
“Core elements like major hub activities in Dubai and Doha have already returned to pre-pandemic levels. The UAE continues to show robust growth potential, particularly with Dubai’s positioning as a global hub for aviation and tourism. But the strongest growth projections in the Middle East are for Saudi Arabia, due to its ambitious tourism and economic diversification plans through its Vision 2030 Strategy.”
The dramatic plan to transform Dubai World Central Airport from secondary local status to a US$35 billion global super hub is part of a 40-year vision by Dubai to develop its entire economy.
All operations from the current hub are due to transfer to stage 1 of the new facility within 10 years, when annual passenger volumes are forecast to reach 150 million.
Saudi Arabia is tipping an eye-watering $3 trillion into non-oil economic growth, with its targets including 100 million additional visitors by 2030.
Atop big investments in existing airlines, airports, services, events and attractions, Saudi is creating new entities including the national-and-international Riyadh Air, new airports and even entirely new destinations such as the futuristic NEOM precinct and the Red Sea Project, the latter to have 50 hotels and resorts by 2030 – up from three today.
Late last year, Red Sea International Airport opened with flights from Riyadh and Jeddah and recently it received its first international services, twice weekly from Dubai.
By 2030, the airport is targeting 1 million passengers per year, one of many small steps in a much bigger plan which will boost both the Saudi and broader Middle Eastern aviation sectors.
That’s not to say Middle East aviation is without challenges, says John Grant, partner at MIDAS aviation consultancy, who sees the region increasingly as “one of haves and have nots”.
He explains: “Outside the big three markets in the Middle East, an initial assessment would be of continuing struggles and limited growth opportunities, especially for the legacy airline segment where carriers such as Oman Air, Kuwait Airways and Royal Jordanian will become increasingly niche.
“But all is not lost and there is a need to contextualise what is happening. Whilst the gravitational pull of Dubai, Doha and Riyadh will result in higher-than-average growth rates, emergent markets and an ever-increasing low-cost sector will provide opportunities for those secondary markets if carefully developed in the next few years.”
Bauer adds that in the UAE’s capital, Abu Dhabi, a 90-minute drive from Dubai on a good day, the grand but long-delayed Zayed International Airport terminal finally opened late last year to a much smaller market than expected when construction began over a decade ago.
It was designed when the national airline, Etihad, was on a global growth surge with plans for around 300 aircraft, up from 120, further boosted by services from multiple foreign airlines in which it was invested.
But after fierce rationalisation by subsequent management, today’s Etihad, while growing again, has been privately assessed by some insiders to be years off restoring the organic scale it had a decade ago. And the showpiece airport is, for now, far too big for the volume of flights it accommodates.
“The growth of airlines from India and Turkey, and their hubs, also introduces more competition,” says Bauer, “potentially reshaping flight routes and market shares in the Middle East, especially for transit traffic which has traditionally favoured Middle Eastern carriers.”
That said, the Middle East’s aviation sector is in no danger of failing.
Nor should be Africa’s, where big populations and significant resources projects naturally encourage optimism. Nigeria alone has a population of more than 238 million.
Africa’s potential for growth is clear
The common, frustrated refrain among those who can see Africa’s great aviation possibilities is that the breadth of change required to truly unlock that potential is unlikely to ever occur.
United Nations data shows that in 1950, the combined populations of African nations represented 8% of the global total. Today they are 18%, and by 2050, a century on, the forecast is 25%.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says Africa’s aviation sector, properly and collaboratively run, has the greatest growth potential of any region – but not without greater flight connectivity between member states.
Expressions of good intent are abundant, and were supercharged in 1986 when aviation ministers of 44 African nations agreed in Yamoussoukro, the capital of Côte d’Ivoire, to develop a vision to unite the continent’s aviation markets.
They formulated the Yamoussoukro Decision, or YD, to progress a well-linked air transport sector, and in 2018 launched the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) project.
The latest target, set last year, is to double international traffic between and beyond African nations from the current 15% to 30% by 2030.
“By 2030, if SAATM is well-implemented, it could lead to 200 new city pairs, 12% global traffic growth, and 15% tourism increase,” enthused the Airlines Association of Southern Africa, highlighting benefits across the entire sector.
Yet there’s broad scepticism that SAATM will progress on any meaningful scale, with support stalled beyond agreement that greater connectivity is a good idea.
Just over a year ago, IATA launched Focus Africa, an industry-wide initiative to intensify pressure for a single aviation market, facilitate “efficient, secure and cost-effective” infrastructure, build skills, expand workforces and progress more sustainable operations.
“The limiting factors on Africa’s aviation sector are fixable. The potential for growth is clear,” declares IATA director-general Willie Walsh.
“The ability to access, serve and develop intra-African markets is crucial,” adds Adefunke Adeyemi, secretary general of the African Civil Aviation Commission, “as the continent’s populace is set to increase by over a billion people by 2050.”
Marcel Langeslag, director of aviation for Africa at NACO (Netherlands Airport Consultants), says three key initiatives are essential to achieve the sought-after growth: liberalisation of airspace, travel visas and trade between African nations.
“Most African countries have signed up for the SAATM,” says Langeslag, “but that’s the easy part. The hard part is ratification then implementation, and in my view that’s really far off.”
Is a single African aviation market the solution?
The African Union, which represents the nations of the region, has set 2063 as its target year to create a truly single aviation market between member states. That’s almost 40 years away.
By then, theoretically, aviation will have been carbon neutral for 13 years and Dubai will likely be ready for its next mega-airport.
Langeslag sees change occurring in African skies, but incrementally.
Pictured: A concept image of Red Sea International Airport
“The growth of intra-African connectivity will have to start with trunk routes,” he says. “First, connect the hubs. Then start growing secondary city pairs. Eventually, you’ll see more origin and destination traffic to secondary cities.
“At the moment it’s very patchy, and that’s how I think it’s going to be developed. If you have enough of those liberalised patches, then maybe they will begin to grow into each other.”
Paying for new airport infrastructure is also a critical challenge for Africa, with governments either unable or unwilling to fund projects. So finance comes from elsewhere.
“Generally, there’s a lack of infrastructure capacity and quality,” says Langeslag. “But how much capacity do you build now and how long will it take to fill? If you struggle to get financing, and then you do get it, you’ll take as much as you can. Some of these airports might be built a bit too big and then stand empty.”
Case in point: Angola’s $3.8 billion new airport near Luanda, funded and built by China, opened late last year, but currently handles just freight. Passenger services will soon be added, but few will serve the vast African markets on its doorstep.
Opportunities for the ground handling sector
Appetites for risk and expectations of reward vary greatly between entrepreneurs in Middle Eastern and African aviation markets. The differing approaches of ground handlers provide clear examples.
Dubai-based dnata, part of the giant Emirates Group, has a growing global footprint, with obvious strength across the Middle East and close proximity to Africa, but has long pulled back from what it has described as the latter’s “challenging environment”.
But a major competitor, Menzies Aviation, part of Kuwait’s Agility Logistics, displays strong and continuing confidence in both regions.
“We expect the Middle East to see sustainable growth over the coming years with airlines in the region having over 2,000 aircraft on order,” says Charles Wyley, the company’s executive vice president for the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The company is particularly excited by opportunities at Dubai’s new aerotropolis, and across Saudi Arabia.
Menzies is also strongly committed to Africa where it is the biggest single ground handler, serving 40 airports in 19 countries either independently or through partnerships, and was the first in its sector to join IATA’s Focus programme.
The company continues to demonstrate its confidence by investing in Africa, most recently at gateways including Johannesburg and Nairobi, and is spending $30 million on 300 units of ground support equipment in South Africa.
“We very much welcome any expansion of intra-Africa air connectivity,” says Wyley, “as the vast majority of cargo is either imported to or exported from the continent.”
A Single African Air Transport Market will deliver significant benefits, he says, “if implemented”.
Red Sea Airport sees blue skies ahead
A major milestone was achieved in mid-April when a flydubai Boeing 737 touched down at Red Sea International Airport in north-west Saudi Arabia.
The flight from Dubai was the new airport’s first international arrival, incrementally advancing the Saudi government’s $3 trillion Vision 2030 economic plan, which includes attracting 100 million additional visitors by 2030.
As the gateway to the prestigious Red Sea Destination, one of the government’s key projects, the airport has been designed in the style of a private jet facility, explains its chief commercial officer, Michael White.
Three luxury properties are already open and three more are due early next year. By 2030, the 28,000 square kilometre precinct – almost as big as Belgium – will offer 50 diverse properties and 1,000 residences across its 22 islands.
At its peak, the airport, expects up to 1 million passenger arrivals per year, says White. Arriving flights, including general aviation, will reach about 125 per week, and peak-time passenger movements will be capped at 900 per hour to help manage the environmental impact of tourism.
The airport, operated by Ireland’s daa International, will have five ‘pods’ which can be activated or deactivated to match passenger volumes.
Stage 1, the air taxi terminal, opened last September and currently handles eight scheduled jets per week from Riyadh, Jeddah and Dubai, plus private flights.
It can accommodate up to 350 passengers per hour and 250,000 guests per year, and handle one widebody or two narrowbody jets, 11 private jets, three helicopters, and six seaplanes.
Stage 2 will see the main terminal open next year for up to five widebodies or 10 narrowbodies and 14 private planes.
One of the five pods will be dedicated to private aviation, while the air taxi terminal will only be used by seaplanes, which will have a dedicated land-based runway.
Flights are expected to increase to 10 per week by the end of this year, and steadily grow.
To comfortably accommodate travellers, the main terminal has spacious internal areas and a mezzanine-level lounge in each pod.
Most passengers’ luggage will be transferred direct from aircraft to accommodation, though a carousel has still been installed for those preferring to collect their own belongings.
When complete, the whole destination will be fully powered by renewable energy, and 760,000 photovoltaic panels have already been installed.
The airport will transition to renewable energy on a phased approach this year, first airside then landside.
Instead of air-conditioned aerobridges, passengers will pass through landscaped gardens designed as a thermal buffer between pods and planes, and power will only be supplied to pods when they are in use.
Ground handling initially will be performed by Saudi Ground Services, which has invested heavily in electric vehicles and service equipment, though external providers may be engaged as the airport grows.
Infrastructure is also established to provide sustainable aviation fuel, and later this year the nation’s first supplies will go to Red Sea Airport, while electric and hydrogen energy will be provided once zero-emission aircraft, including seaplanes and air taxis, are introduced.
